Oil Prices Dip as U.S. Hits LNG Export Record in 2025

Updated: 06 Jan, 2026 • 0 • min read

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Oil Prices Dip as U.S. Hits LNG Export Record in 2025

Oil Futures Start the Year with a Slight Decline

Oil futures opened the year with a minor decline on Friday, influenced by ongoing conflicts in the Russia-Ukraine war, rising tensions in the Middle East, and the U.S. campaign against Venezuela's oil exports. These factors counterbalanced concerns about an oversupply of oil in the market.

The International Energy Agency has predicted a surplus of approximately 3.8 million barrels per day for the year. According to data from Kpler’s Bridgeton Research Group, advisors increased their short positions in Brent crude to 91% on Friday, up from 82%. This shift reflects growing concerns about the potential for a supply glut despite other geopolitical uncertainties.

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Disruptions

The outlook for a surplus is acting as a buffer against potential production disruptions. In Venezuela, the Trump administration has intensified its actions against the Maduro regime through a maritime blockade of the country’s oil exports and by sanctioning companies in China, as well as vessels accused of evading sanctions.

In the Middle East, tensions between OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen have escalated. President Trump has also indicated that the U.S. is prepared to support protesters in Iran if authorities respond harshly to rising unrest in the country.

Meanwhile, Russia's war on Ukraine continues despite peace efforts. Both sides have attacked each other's Black Sea ports, causing damage to oil infrastructure, including a refinery.

Market Response and Analyst Comments

Despite these geopolitical concerns, the oil market appears relatively unaffected. Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group noted in a report, "Oil prices are locked in this long-term trading range, and there's a sense that the market is going to be well supplied no matter what happens."

Key OPEC+ countries are scheduled to meet on Sunday, where they are expected to maintain their output targets unchanged for the first quarter of the year.

Price Movements and Market Performance

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for February delivery closed down 0.2% at $57.32 per barrel, while front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM) for March delivery settled down 0.1% at $60.75 per barrel. These figures capped weekly losses of 1% and 0.8%, respectively.

Brent and WTI benchmarks both experienced nearly 20% declines in 2025, marking the steepest drops since 2020. This is the third consecutive year of losses for Brent, the longest such streak on record.

Front-month Nymex natural gas (NG1:COM) for February delivery closed down 1.8% at $3.618 per million British thermal units, finishing the week 6.7% lower.

Natural Gas Exports and Energy Stocks

The U.S. sold 111 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas in 2025, becoming the first country to export more than 100 million tons of LNG in a single year. This achievement was driven by the startup of production from new plants, according to preliminary data from LSEG.

Energy stocks, represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), ended the holiday-shortened week up 3.3%.

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