California's strange governor's race takes a wild turn

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The Legacy of California’s Past Governors

The last three governors of California have all been iconic figures in American politics. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who served from 2003 to 2011, was a Hollywood icon and pop culture phenomenon before becoming governor through a recall election that removed his predecessor, Gray Davis. He remains the last Republican elected to the governorship or U.S. Senate in California. Jerry Brown, who governed from 2011 to 2019, had a long political career, serving two terms as governor after first being elected in 1974. He also ran for president multiple times. The current and outgoing governor, Gavin Newsom, previously served as mayor of San Francisco and lieutenant governor before ascending to the top job in Sacramento.

A Competitive but Unclear Gubernatorial Race

The race for the 41st governor of California currently has ten candidates — eight Democrats and two Republicans. However, many voters are unfamiliar with these individuals. Two prominent Democrats, former U.S. Senator Kamala Harris and her Senate successor Alex Padilla, have opted out of the race, with Harris likely considering a presidential bid in 2028 against Newsom. Their absence has left a void in the field.

The remaining candidates include several well-known figures, though none have yet emerged as clear frontrunners. Democratic representatives Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell, both of whom ran for president in 2020, are in the race. Other contenders include Tony Thurmond, the Superintendent of Public Instruction, and Betty Yee, a former state comptroller. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Xavier Becerra (a former Biden administration official), and Ian Calderon, a former state assembly leader, are also running. Tom Steyer, a hedge fund billionaire and liberal activist, has recently joined the race.

On the Republican side, Steve Hilton, a Fox News commentator and former British Tory operative, and Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, are the only two candidates.

Polls Show a Struggling Field

Polls indicate that the race is still very much up in the air. Early on, Katie Porter had some momentum due to her name recognition from her 2024 Senate campaign, but she lost ground after a controversial media interview. The latest poll from Emerson shows Chad Bianco at 13 percent, Steve Hilton and Eric Swalwell at 12 percent, and Porter at 11 percent. The rest of the candidates combined for just 7 percent, while 31 percent of voters remain undecided.

This lack of clarity has raised concerns among Democrats, who worry that the race could result in a Republican win in the non-partisan top two primary system. While a total Democratic loss is unlikely, the possibility of a chaotic outcome has caused anxiety within the party.

Potential for Late Entrants

Although the race is expected to intensify as 2026 progresses, the candidate filing deadline is not until March. This leaves room for late entries, including potential celebrities or wealthy self-funders. Rick Caruso, a Los Angeles developer, could run if he doesn’t seek re-election as mayor. Other possible candidates include Rob Bonta, the state attorney general, who might enter the race hoping for a breakthrough.

Key Players and Issues

Tom Steyer’s wealth could give him an edge in gaining name recognition. Ideological divisions and factional alignments will also play a role. Tony Thurmond is promoting a single-payer healthcare system and has support from powerful teachers’ unions. Antonio Villaraigosa, a known moderate, has a long history in California politics. Katie Porter faces challenges from her past conflicts with the crypto industry, while Ian Calderon has aligned himself with the sector.

Xavier Becerra can highlight his legal battles with the Trump administration, and Eric Swalwell has been vocal in his criticism of Donald Trump. On the Republican side, both Hilton and Bianco are vying for a Trump endorsement, with Hilton having a long-standing relationship with the former president.

Regional and Ethnic Dynamics

Ethnic and geographical rivalries may also influence the race. Becerra, Calderon, and Villaraigosa are Latino; Betty Yee is Asian-American; and Tony Thurmond is Black. In terms of geography, Calderon, Porter, and Villaraigosa are from the greater Los Angeles area, while Steyer, Swalwell, Thurmond, and Yee are from the San Francisco Bay area. Becerra is from Sacramento.

Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last governor from Southern California and represented the last era of moderate Republicans.

A Challenging Future for California

Whoever wins the race will inherit a state facing significant challenges, including fiscal issues, a divided legislature, environmental concerns, and a housing affordability crisis. These problems have sparked national debates over regulatory reforms to accelerate construction. Despite the difficulties, the next governor is likely to gain widespread recognition quickly.