Myanmar's First Election in 5 Years Amid Rising Military Criticism

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Myanmar's Upcoming Election: A Step Toward Democracy or a Facade?

Myanmar is set to hold the first phase of its general election on Sunday, marking the country's first vote in five years. This event has been described by critics as an attempt to restore democracy after a 2021 military takeover, but many believe it will not bring about real change or end the ongoing civil war that has plagued the nation.

The military government has framed these elections as a return to multi-party democracy, aiming to add a layer of legitimacy to its rule. However, this move comes after the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, triggering widespread opposition and leading to a deepening civil conflict. The fighting has made it difficult to conduct the polls in many areas, with voting taking place in three separate phases—on Sunday, January 11, and January 25.

Critics Doubt the Credibility of the Elections

Human rights organizations and opposition groups have raised concerns about the fairness and freedom of the upcoming vote. They argue that power is likely to remain in the hands of Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, the military leader who has maintained control since the coup.

Richard Horsey, a Myanmar analyst for the International Crisis Group, has stated that the elections are not credible. He explained that they do not include any of the political parties that previously performed well in elections. Instead, the military is expected to support its favored Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) to win in a landslide, creating a government with a civilian appearance while maintaining military control.

This strategy could allow the military to claim progress toward inclusiveness, aligning with a peace proposal from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that calls for dialogue among all parties involved. It might also serve as a justification for neighboring countries like China, India, and Thailand to continue their support, which they argue helps maintain stability in Myanmar.

Western Sanctions and Political Exclusion

Western nations have imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s ruling generals due to their anti-democratic actions and brutal treatment of opponents. The military seized power on February 1, 2021, claiming the 2020 election, which was won by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, was illegitimate due to alleged irregularities. Independent observers, however, found no major issues with the process.

On Sunday, voting will take place in 102 out of 330 townships, with further rounds scheduled for January 11 and January 25. However, 65 townships will not hold votes due to ongoing conflicts with ethnic guerrilla groups and resistance forces.

Despite the participation of 57 political parties, most are only running candidates in their home states or regions. Only six parties are competing nationwide, and while they have a chance to gain political power, the rules favor the pro-military USDP, which is likely to dominate the polls.

Aung San Suu Kyi and Her Party Are Not Participating

Aung San Suu Kyi, the former leader of Myanmar, is not participating in the election. She is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence on charges widely considered to be politically motivated. Her party, the National League for Democracy, was dissolved after refusing to register under the new military rules.

Other parties have also boycotted the vote or declined to run under conditions they see as unfair. Opposition groups have called for a voter boycott as well.

Amael Vier, an analyst for the Asian Network for Free Elections, noted that the political parties that won 90% of the seats in 2020 no longer exist today. An Election Protection Law enacted this year has placed harsh restrictions on political activity, effectively banning public criticism of the polls. Over 200 people have been charged for leafleting or online activities in recent months.

Repression and Violence Continue

The human cost of the conflict in Myanmar has been severe. According to the independent Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, over 22,000 people are detained for political offenses, and more than 7,600 civilians have been killed by security forces since the military takeover. There are also over 3.6 million internally displaced people, creating a major humanitarian crisis.

The U.N. Human Rights Office has warned that violence and repression are intensifying ahead of the military-controlled elections. Civilians are being threatened by both military authorities and armed opposition groups regarding their participation.

Joe Freeman, a researcher at Amnesty International, said many fear the election will entrench the power of those responsible for years of unlawful killings. Horsey believes that after the polls, Myanmar may see increased conflict as opponents challenge the military’s legitimacy.